Know what grows
each brand.
Brand investment, distribution, media and portfolio decisions, connected. Understand what contributes to sales over time and what to test next quarter.
Consumer brands sell through partners they don't control. Investment is decided by brand and category, while sales arrive through distribution, promotions and the market.
- Investment by brand and channel
- Distribution, sell-in and sell-out where available
- Portfolio and category roles
- Penetration and incrementality
Questions you can ask
- Which media channels are driving incremental sales?
- How much of growth is associated with media versus distribution?
- Which audiences are underpenetrated?
- Which creative territory works best for each brand?
- How should we allocate next quarter’s investment?
Data that becomes useful
- Media investment and activity by channel
- Sales by brand, category, geography and period
- Promotions and distribution
- Market context that is available
Sell-out coverage varies by retailer and market. Where it is missing, the analysis says so.
How much of SOLA’s growth this year is associated with media?
NexusIn this constructed model, baseline demand explains most of the volume and paid search is the largest media component. Distribution also widened in the same months, so I’d treat the media share as an estimate and test the search budget before moving it.
Output Contribution waterfall and a proposed geo test
What the agents can do
01 / UnderstandNexusAnalyze contribution by channel and the hypotheses behind a change in sales.
02 / DefineAuraPrioritize the brand opportunity and the audience that is underpenetrated.
03 / CreatePrismDevelop concepts for each brand from its territory and approved claims.
04 / ActivateRadianPrepare the campaign and the test that will measure it.
- 05 / LearnShared system
Compare results with the model’s assumptions and update the next investment decision.
↺ Returns to Understand
Marketing mix modeling with Google’s Meridian framework
Marketing mix modeling relates sales to marketing activity over time, taking other factors and stated assumptions into account, to inform investment decisions. Random Truffle runs MMM workflows with Meridian, Google’s open-source framework.
- Contribution by channel
- Return estimates by channel
- Response curves
- Budget scenarios
Outputs depend on the data and the fitted model. Geo-level analysis and calibration with experiments are possible when the data supports them; they are not automatic. A model estimate is not proof of a single campaign’s effect.
How learning closes the loop
The model informs where to invest; experiments test what changed. MMM does not create an individual audience on its own, so the loop carries its findings into Define as an opportunity to test.
What is measured- Incremental sales, estimated or measured according to the method
- Contribution by channel
- Creative response by brand
- Investment decisions and their review
Constructed example. Not a fitted client MMM.
Start with the investment decision.
Explore how contribution, credit and incremental effect answer different questions.